1、Y79]幺51分類號Ⅱ生!f：!密級齟UDc配5東碩士學號Q2i2南大學學位論文城市機動車車輛停放特性分析與停車需求預測研究研究生姓名：張鈞導師姓私：三炷熬援一中清學位級另U—』鹺j吐_學科專業(yè)名稱鑾通運逾翅劃生笪堡論文提交日期—型曼生Q；且論文答辯El期2005生03月曰學位授予單位一盔直太堂學位授予日期20年月臼答辯委員會豐席評閱人2005年3月OZf5平5AbstractThedifficultyandchaosofparking

2、havebecomeoneofthemostseriousurbantrafficproblemsAlongwiththesocialandeconomicdevelopmentandrapidincreaseofmotorvehiclesinChina(especiallytheprivatecars)，theconflictofparkingsupplyanddemandinmanycitiesisstrikingnowTogras

3、ptheparkingcharacteristicsandtherulesofparkinginChinesecitiesfullyandtoforecasttheparkingdemandsrationallyandaccuratelyisveryimportant，whichhasitsspecialmeaningsbothintheoryandinpracticestoparkinglayoutplanning，parkingco

4、nstruction，andtheanalysisparker’SbehaviordecisionmakingResearchinthispaperreliesonitem‘‘Researchonkeymeansaboutvehiclesparkingincitiesundernewposture”(No：50308005)whichisstakedbyNationalNatureScienceFundationofChinaThisp

5、aperexplainedamethodofhowtosurveyandanalyzetheparkingcharacteristicsByinvestigatingtheCarparkingcharacteristicsanddrives’reactionbehaviorcharacteristictoPGISinNanjing，asetofconsultableconclusionsaregainedBasedonanalyzing

6、thebasicelementsinfluencingparkingbehaviors，NchardArnottt’SparkingbehaviorsmodelsisquotedtoexplainthewholeprocessofparkingbehaviorTheauthoranalyzesmadclassifymechanization’Sactionof8citieswhichlieindifferentre百onsandwhos

7、eeconomyscalesaredifferent，andthengettherulesofparkingbehaviorandvehicle’StripThispaperdescribesdefinitionandcharacterisofparkingdemandWithregardtoparkingdemandprediction，theauthorputsforwarditsthreephasesandsummarizesth

8、epredictingapproachesParkingchargeisusedasindependentvariableparametertoperformmultinomiallogitmodeltopredictthechoiceoftramcmodes，andalsoanestlogitmodelisbuilttopredicttheimpactofitonthewholeprocessoftravelbehaviorandth

9、echoicesofdestinationoftripAccordingtothreephasesofpredictingapproaches，alogitdisaggregatebehavioralmodelofparkingdemandpredictioniSbuiltIntheendallconclusionsaresummarizedandresearchdirectionsinthefutureareprospectedint